CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) PANDEMIC WILL CHANGE THE WORLD

CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC WILL CHANGE THE WORLD

OUTLINE

1. Introduction

• Epochal events and evolution of modern societies.
• Coronavirus Pandemic and global unpreparedness.
• Impacts of the Pandemic on the world.

2. How the Coronavirus Pandemic will Change the World

• Intra-state implications;

1. Fundamental change in human interaction
2. Online education: A permanent reality
   1. More educational institutions will adopt
      e-learning
   2. Governments to prioritize internet access and quality connectivity.

• Digitalized governance mechanisms
  1. Strict scrutiny of the government by the public
  2. Developing nations to embrace e-governance

1. Paradigm shift towards e-commerce
   1. Traditional businesses going online
   2. Emergence of new online startups
2. Public health system: A top priority
   1. Financing healthcare system
   2. Health policy to be the center stage of politics
3. Worsening poverty and unemployment
   1. Poverty will eventually create an acute hunger crisis
   2. Unemployment will further contract economic opportunities

• Revised notion of National Security Paradigms
  1. Shift from Military Industrial complex to Medical Industrial complex
• Governments to be more rigorous in their functions
  1. Recession of democratic values
  2. Authoritarian regimes to be more emboldened
• Inter-state implications

1. Protectionist trade policies
   1. “Free trade” mantra is to be reversed
   2. States will assist domestic economies rather than assisting one another
2. Retreat of Globalization and rule-based order
3. Global leadership: From West to East
4. Liberal world order to die gradually

• Xenophobia and Nationalism in global politics

1. Minority Communities in hot waters
2. More problems for refugees and migrants
3. Death of significant multilateral institutions
   1. UNO, WHO, European Union
   2. An era of bilateral cooperation
4. Burning issues on the backburners
5. Climate change, Nuclearization
6. Renewed focus on industrialization
7. Conclusion:

Essay

CORONA VIRUS PANDEMIC WILL CHANGE THE WORLD

“There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen,” said Vladimir Lenin, the socialist guru. The quote is quite relevant to the current global crisis. The modern society has evolved after passing through deadly wars, macabre calamities, and lethal pandemics. Despite this, theimpregnable spirit of resilience and perseverance of the humankind and its ability to learn lessons from such epochal events have determined the future course of human beings. From the treaty of Westphalia (1648) to the creation of the United Nations (UN) after WWII; desperate situations led the world to embrace new ideas, new rules of governance, and new approaches in economic and political arenas. However, this prolonged held notion turned topsy-turvy when on 11^th March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus – a virus that emerged in Wuhan city of China – a pandemic and belatedly warned the world of the Biblical crisis ahead. This epidemic officially named by the WHO as COVID-19 took the world by storm and threw it into uncertainty. In fact, the world was not only ill-equipped but also entirely unprepared for such a highly contagious pandemic. From global trade to recreational activities, from academic life to political gatherings, and from religious rituals to sports events, the pandemic has brought everything to a grinding halt. Observing all these developments, experts opine that coronavirus will thoroughly overhaul our future and our lifestyle. “Digital will be the King,” as e-governance and e-learning are gaining tractionin every field of life. Similarly, the internet will be the backbone of future trade and business as the traditional methods of doing business are waning. In the post-pandemic world, states seem to prioritize their public health sectors. More budgets will be diverted to this sector and a state’s international stature will be determined through the efficacy of its healthcare system. Likewise, national security paradigms will face complete redefinition with the incorporation of health security alongside terrorism, population explosion, the refugee crisis, and climate change. Also, in terms of aftershocks, sea changes will occur. “The Great Lockdown” will seriously reverse the hard-won gains in terms of poverty alleviation and economic well-being through the UN sponsored Sustainable Development Goads (SDGs). Globalization seems in a clear retreat with rising protectionism and the selfish proclivity of the key Western states. the pandemic has further spurred the already-unbridled narratives of xenophobia and nationalism. In this backdrop, the lackluster reaction of various multilateral institutions in evading this crisis spells doomsday for the Western hegemony over world affairs. Also, this medically induced economic coma will compel the global community to ignore the thorny issues of climate change and nuclearization for at least a decade. Putting all this to oblivious, it seems that the coronavirus pandemic is going to drastically transform the social, economic, and political aspects across the globe in the most unexpected and unprecedented ways.

Coming towards the implications of coronavirus on the globe, it seems that the first casualty is the current human interaction. It will do a fundamental shift in the post-pandemic world due to the current strict implementation of social distancing measuresthat have ended traditional greetings. For example, firm handshakes, warm hugs, and other traditional salutatory gestures have now become relics of the past. Also, human beings are adaptable creatures, while this medical trauma has already blessed them with the consciousness about the contagious nature of various diseases. This is a radical shift from the past norm. And this radical change will be more conspicuous in developed countries, while, willy-nilly the backward nations will have to follow suit. With these redefined natures of social dealings, the outlook of human societies is certainly going to change the post-COVID-19 world. Also, as this interaction is going to end, the pandemic is going to revolutionize the education sector with an increasing trend of digital learning, replacing the current face-to-face scenario. Moreover, strict lockdowns and rigorous social distancing have already made it near impossible for educational institutions to conduct routine classes. According to a UNESCO count,the school closures have impacted over 1.5 billionchildren across the globe. To end this closure, the countries are rapidly adopting online education as a “new normal” despite having no clues about it. For example, many public sector universities in Pakistan have now shifted to e-learning despite having no foundational information. Although the accessibility of the internet and quality connectivity are still exceptions, governments are making efforts to provide optimum learning opportunities to all. Obviously, such drastic measures are required to avoid the flattening of the literacy curve along with ending the pandemic curve. However, it may not happen as effectively without the government going online or say the practical e-governance.

In fact, the pandemic first prompted the governments to go for e-governance – a process already in progress before the onslaught of the pandemic. This global health crisis has rather further accelerated this process. E-governance is the byproduct of the proliferation of the internet and computing systems,guiding the governments to try to find innovative digital solutions to social, economic, political, and other problems. However, the sluggishness with which the governments were going online has suddenly picked up momentum. With the spread of the epidemic, the forced self-isolation of millions of people has dramatically increased the value of public e-services of obtaining information, submitting applications, solving business problems, or resolving personal issues that involve interaction with the government agencies. The developing countries, soon, found themselves in hot waters due to this sluggishness. Recently, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has appreciated the success of e-governance in developing nations such as Estonia and Benin in these times of the corona pandemic. It is because it helps provide common citizens to strictly scrutinize the efficacy of the administration – thus proving a boon rather than a bane. The speedy e-governance has burgeoned a paradigm shift in the corporate world.

The pandemic, to say truly, has rather acceleratedthis shift in e-commerce and e-business. Previously, the traditional businesses were reluctant to delve into the unfamiliar territory of digitalization. With the ravages of the pandemictaking excessive tolls on the people, the role of the internet has changed for the corporate world. Now the newspaper industry, construction businesses, food and beverage outlets, and fitness centers are ramping up digital operations. It will certainly entail in soft expertise replacing traditional jobs. The current currency seemingly a problem is soon going to give place to digital currency owing to its advantage of having no physical contact involved. Apart from that, even ride-hailing services are now offering “groceries and other essential items at your doorsteps.” Various-sports related manufacturers are not far behind; they, too, are manufacturing face masks, personal protective equipment, reusable gloves, and hand sanitizers to stay in the market. Therefore, new online startups are emerging to meet the ever-growing volatile needs of the crisis. This is leading to new applications, making IT experts work oninnovative ideas to assist the business community to survive the global crisis with a further boost to the public healthcare system.

Despite the current failures of the healthcare systems, the pandemic is going to bring themto the center stage of the future political and academic discourse. These systems are commonly defined as “all public, private and voluntary entities that contribute to the delivery of essential public health services within a jurisdiction.” Strained medical equipment and supplies to test and protect against COVID-19 are exposing underfunded health sectors of even the most developed countries. This flagrant situation in developing countries is evident from a New York Times report. The report provides a horrific account of the tragic conditions prevalent in Africa where, according to it, 10 African countries do not have even a single ventilator. This willful past neglect may change traditional politics, making health primary public concern and main voting issue. Also, the increased focus would eventually set the tone for a robust public interestin the politics of sufficiently financed and efficiently manageable healthcare systems. Briefly, this once-in-a-generation pandemic will potentially alter the contours of public discourse around the healthcare system despite compounding poverty and ensuing joblessness.

The results of the existing “the Great Lockdown” are poverty and unemployment that are going to rule the roost across the globe.It is because the measures to contain COVID-19 will impact households in various ways. The resulting joblessness, loss of remittances, higher prices, rationing of food, shortage of basic goods, and disruption in health care services and education are going to take further toll from the masses. A recent World Bank (WB) study shows that the pandemic could push about 49 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. Further contracted economic opportunities and discouraging micro-economic indicators would cause the hunger crisis. A report from the World Food Program warns that coronavirus will push circa 265 million people to the brink of starvation, though, thejob loss tally has already touched the whopping number of 26 million and that too in the United States – a model among the developed countries.The figures show that tumultuous economic shocks would have a domino effect on the societies in the decades to come. Besides, the current crisis will also reverse the hard-earned gains achieved by the UN Millennium Development Goals and SDGs in terms of poverty alleviation. As the shrinking financial wherewithal spawned by the pandemic would certainly exacerbate poverty in the long run, it will have far-reaching impacts on the national securities worldwide.

Having eaten up state resources, this health crisis is now going tooblige the states to revisit their national security imperatives. In the wake of the worsening public health situation, the threat of new diseases, and the resumption of other deadly viruses,  it becomes vital to rationalize the national security paradigms. Security analysts, epidemiologists, and social thinkers are making compelling arguments in the favour of Medical Industrial Complex instead of currently prevalent Military Industrial Complex to avoid further deterioration of the idea of a welfare state. This inevitable shift has the potential to bring peace and prosperity, for in the pre-pandemic world¸ the military spending was staggeringly higher than the healthcare budgets. To quoteIslamabad Strategic Studies Institute, Pakistan’s military spending was around 4% of the GDP as compared to the healthcare budget that was less than 1% of the GDP. As the pandemic has debunked the frailty of the healthcare systems of almost every country of the world, there is an increasing globalclamorto put thetraditional security threats on the backburner. With increased emphasis on the healthcare system, it seems that the post-COVID world may embolden the authoritarian regimes.

It is quite controversial that the post-COVID world is going to embolden the authoritarian countries. In fact, history is replete with instances where several states have seized emergencies to justify their acts and then normalize those extraordinary measures. For example, as now to combat the contagion, most of the states are using aggressive mobile tracking measures and mass surveillance tools such as facial recognition cameras and contact tracing. It includes violations of the fundamental rights to privacy, speech, and free movement. The press freedom, too, has become its casualty. Reports emerging from India, North Korea, Russia, and Italy corroborate this argument. Likewise, calling the military to assist civilian administrations in these crucial times may also disturb civil-military balance and relations. Ergo, one can predict the recession of democratic norms in the post-pandemic world.

Although these intra-state implications may impact the global order in the post-COVID world, the significance of the inter-state implications cannot stay diminished, for they, too, will have far-reaching consequences on international relations.

First, protectionist trade policies are going to roil international relations in the coming years. It is predicted that governments, around the world, will turn increasingly protectionist in the near term as they try to limit the economic damage from the coronavirus disease. They will likely focus on saving their “favored” industries, imposing inequitable tariffs, restricting key exports, and manipulating free trade rules. Trade wars such as between India and the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, and China and the United States may occur quite frequently in the aftermath of the gigantic economic shocks. Even amid global health challenges, “civilized nations” such as Canada and other Latin American states are lambasting the United States for unfairly blocking the supply of essential medical equipment to the respective countries. In this connection,Trump’s invocation of the Defense Production Act (DPA) is an example of approaching a protectionist storm. To cut it short, free trade narrative will lose its vigor amid the onslaughts of protectionism, which seem to end the western concept of globalization.

Second, as globalization is a western idea based on the western rules, the pandemic seems to have put it to retreat much before than expected. The people still pinning their hopes on it are running after its casket only. In the middle of this existential crisis, generosity has become a more powerful tool to influence the states.And China is leading the world in this connection. Chinese pandemic assistance to various countries falls under this notion. On the other hand,the US leadership deficit in the face of this crisis and China’s mask diplomacy fortify the chances of global leadership transition from the West to the East. Unprecedented help by two other socialist countries such as Russia and Cuba coupled with hypercritical and predatory policies of European nations could potentially subvert the liberal world order further.

Third, the already frenzied sentiments of xenophobia and nationalism would further tear apart theworn-out fabric of global politics. The reason is that crises have a subtle way of exposing stark contradictions and inherent anomalies in the body politics. When crises ensue, such contradictions turn into wide cracks. The pandemic by showing dark sides of much of the progressive societies have already demonstrated this phenomenon. For instance, multiple reports are emerging out of China about black people becoming targets, marginalized, and even ostracized. Similarly, the Hindutva clique is taking the pandemic as a godsend opportunity in its quest to cleanseMaha-Bharat from the Muslims. The demonization of the Tableeghi Jamaat and flagrant state-sponsored hate campaign against the Muslim community in India as a whole indicate obnoxious ripple-effect of COVID-19. The same concern is being shared by reputable human rights organizations that already-beleaguered minority communities are at risk of victimization. The situation in other countries is not different asembroiled migrant workers in the oil-rich Gulf countries are facing turmoil and, in some cases, are forcibly repatriated to their homelands. With increasing clamor about developed states regarding the job security of the indigenous citizens, refugees would also find themselves in tight corners. Hence, the argument of the current pandemic fanning xenophobic and nationalistic sentiments is already proving a reality with serious impacts on much-touted multilateralism.

Whereas multilateralism is concerned, the pandemic has shaken its very foundations up to roots. It is apparent in the shape of the belated and ill-planned response of vital multilateral organizations such as the WHO, the European Union (EU), and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to stave off this threat that signifies rising concerns about the very efficacy of these organizations. While the United States and some other countries are berating the WHO,alleging it mishandled the crisis to please China. Other countries, too, are jumping on this bandwagon. For example, comparativelybackward Southern European states are criticizing the rich Northern countries for not doing enough to sustain the economic burden brought by the contagion. Likewise, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is conspicuously missing in this crisis. Surprisingly, it did not declare the COVID-19 a threat to peace and security, which if declared, would have been a timely step in the right direction. This has led to a collective ineptitude of these key multilateral institutions. Now the situation seems that in the post-corona world despite having global problems, states would prefer bilateral solutions. Multilateralism would be the thing of the past. The reason is that after the Brexit brouhaha, “Italexit” has become a new buzzword in Europe. It seems that this black swan would emasculate the vital international organizations on account of its gravity to the point where burning issues would be placed on the backburner.

Lastly, the burning issues would face serious neglect due to the priority given to economic recovery. For example, other challenges such as climate change, nuclearization,exploring population,unchecked urbanization, food insecurity, and income disparity would face deprioritization, for common issues in politics often become critical and dominate the whole scenario. This is particularly true when the former inspires panic and the latter permits procrastination. The same is the case here as monstrous threats have largely subsided in the world buzzing with the pandemic. “Self-destructive as it sounds, the global community would attain economic resuscitation by trampling on and ravaging pervasive underlying pre-pandemic challenges,” writes New York Times in its editorial piece. It means that asymmetric and uncoordinated strategies by various states in the post-pandemic world will navigate the globe toward a calamitous end. In short, a renewed focus on economic activities-industrialization, mass production, and financial stimuli will end up in vehement disregard of other crucial global challenges.

Concluding the argument, it could be fairly stated that COVID-19 would lead to a complete and drastic reorientation of modern societies in almost every aspect. It is a black swan even – a phenomenon characterized by extreme rarity, severe impact, and grim enormity. This event will reshape normal perspectives about education, economy, governance, social connectivity, and so on. Times of upheaval create opportunities to channel individual and collective energies to achieve noble goals. Since this pandemic is unprecedented in modern history, innovative and robust approaches are largely dependent on sound global responses. In times of deadly contagion, it is not the dearth of testing kits that should be feared most,but the paucity of sane strategies and abundance of divisive fear-mongering that should be feared. Indeed, coronavirus is a once-in-a-generation chance to remake society and reshape a sustainable world. That is why the global community needs to realize that through unity, solidarity, and cooperation it couldconfront this challenge. Predatory gimmicks adopted by the rich countries would only worsen the woes of the rest of the world. Interestingly, COVID-19 has been the greatest equalizer; it has erased border differences, religious discriminations, and nationalistic fissures. Moreover, as the world has been a global village, diseases, droughts, floods, wars, and hate-narratives cannot stay confined to a specific territory they spread. Hence, such gargantuan threats ought to unite humankind rather than divide it. When the world defeats this contagion, it is hoped that the global community would be able to demonstrate a similar urgency in the fight against other such global challenges: poverty, armed conflicts, climate challenge, unregulated migration, exploding population.

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