DEGLOBALIZATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN 21ST CENTURY

DEGLOBALIZATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN 21^ST CENTURY

OUTLINES

1. Introduction

(a)  Rise of globalization

(b)  Transnational harmony

(c)  Deglobalization: definition and phenomenon

2. How Deglobalization is Happening

(a)  Rise of ultra-nationalism

(b)  Increasing selection through elections of populist leaders

(c)  Outflow of capital from developed countries

(d)  Dithering toward refugees

(e)  Negative effects of social media: age of fake news and propaganda

(f)   The North-South Divide: an exponential increase

3. Deglobalization and its Implications in the 21^stCentury

(a)  Death of democratic ideals

(b)  Hostility among nations and prospects of a global war

(c)  Reversing the wheels of progress: major blow to global economy

(d)  Rise in terrorism across globe

(e)  Exacerbating threat of climate change

(f)   Application of protectionism by industrialized nations

(g)  Socio-economic crisis intensifying

4. Conclusion

Essay

DEGLOBALIZATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN 21^ST CENTURY

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world.

“The Second Coming” by William Butler Yeats

Little did this Irish bard know that his lines would become a reflection of the global cultural chaos hitting the world in the 21^st century. These lines, prophetically, demonstrate that the situation has almost become similar to the metaphorical presentation of the world of that time. The seeds of this situation, named as deglobalization, germinate from the English Industrial Revolution of the eighteenth and nineteenth century, which caused the rise of the concept of globalization. Initially, the entire world shared the fruits of that progress emerged from the United Kingdom, giving rise to the phenomenon of global economy – making of the world nations coming closer to each other than ever before, and sharing of advancements in science and technology. It happened through the formation of closer economic bonds and friendships, resulting in globalization, a process of the coming close of the nation states to each other through intertwined economic, financial, social, and technological relations. Globalization is the condensation of the entire globe into a village, using fast technology and swift transportation developed afterward. Further efforts for mutual integration culminated in the shape of the United Nations (UN), becoming the zenith of globalization, and giving births to various transnational organizations to further solidify the concept of globalization. Unfortunately, the glorious days of globalization did not last long, for various forces, both national as well as international, join hands to destroy this concept of a global community – the centrality of the argument. All those forces have converged into this theoretical term; deglobalization. Deglobalization is the reversal of that process as stated by Walden Flores Bello in his book of the same title. According to this Philippian academic, this reversal is the product of various factors such as the rise of nationalism, increasing selection of populist leaders in various countries, and capital outflow from developed countries. It has further intensified through exponential rise in the North-South Divide, growing xenophobia in some countries and negative impacts of the proliferation of social media. Such factors contributing to the decentralization are expected to intensify this deglobalization process, which will have far-reaching repercussions for the globe. They are not only expected to cause the death of democratic ideals but are also likely to unleash a threat of global war, as the trend of the increasing hostility among nations, and further rise in terrorism amply demonstrates it. They may also cause multifold increase in socio-economic problems, dwindling progress of the world economy, and exacerbation of climatic changes. Emerging from the globalization, deglobalization caused by multiple reasons will have far-reaching impacts in various fields across the globe.

On account of its decentralizing tendencies, it seems that the rise of ultra-nationalism and nationalistic proclivities in the politics of some countries are the leading reasons of deglobalization. Ultra-nationalism is, in fact, a narrow conceptual approach toward world affairs manipulating which a person, or a nation focuses only on its own existence and well-being. Since globalization focuses on the overall well-being of the populace, it directly clashes with nationalism and ultra-nationalism, for these proclivities damage the very conceptual framework lying behind globalization. It is because, in ultra-nationalism, people start thinking on nationalistic lines, shunning humanity or global betterment. The world is witnessing a phenomenal rise of such leaders, having  nationalistic or populistic tendencies such as Donald Trump in America, Modi in India and Johnson in England, while some Western countries, too, are on the verge of entering ultranationalism. Trump’s slogan “Make America great again” echoes in almost all the rallies of such nature. This is how this trend of looking inward leads to populism.

Therefore, populism and election or selection of the populist leaders is another factor causing deglobalization. In fact, populism is going cause wide popular political sloganeering and flaming of the public sentiments, opposing rational thinking. This  narrowminded outlook toward politics makes democracy hostage to the will of the majority. For example, the election of Narendra Modi, Donald Trump and Boris Johnson is a case in point in that they have successfully reaped the fruits of populism that they created using nationalistic trends and tendencies. They have, then, implemented policies, causing ruptures in the concept of globalization. Trump’s exit from the climate change agreement, taxes on the global trading system, and walling the borders on Mexican side are some moves that have jolted globalization. Another is Brexit – the divorce between European Union and Britain. This shows how rising populism is getting demagogues elected to run the countries and cause disruption in globalization.

But, there is another factor which is upsurge in the outflow of capital that is causing deglobalization. It is, in fact, the same thing that developed countries have done in the past – increasing imports, providing tax heavens and cheapening labour. For example, Third World developing countries, Bangladesh and China, have increased their imports, though they are, rightly or wrongly, accused of utilizing flaws in the global economic framework. In fact, companies in the developed countries, to maximize their profit, have moved their capital to countries, having cheap tax regimes, and cheap labour such as Bangladesh, China, Vietnam etc. This move on the part of these companies cause a flight of capital from the country of origin to the other less developed or developing country. This capital outflow not only causes loss of jobs in the parent country, but also causes decline in public income. The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) cites that ever since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, America has lost 2.4 million jobs to China. That is why Trump is so brash and xenophobic toward China. Briefly put it, capital outflow toward the Third World countries is another factor causing deglobalization.

In addition to it, dithering over the question of the acceptance of refugees is a great driver of the concept of deglobalization. The civil war in Syria and the Arab Spring in the Middle East resulted in a mammoth influx of refugees washed ashore Europe. Fearing their safety, they tried to move to some European country. Currently, according to the UN, more than 200,000 refugees have left Syria to find a safe place in Europe. Resultantly, such a huge influx has put a crushing burden on the resources of the European countries, causing most of them to turn hostile toward these innocent people. That is why recently Italy closed its coastal borders to refugees entering the country. Citing lack of resources and threat of terrorism as the logic, western countries have started closing their borders, furthering deglobalization.

Furthermore, social media has emerged as another critical factor. In fact, social media has become a boon-bane controversy due to its impacts, but in the case of globalization and deglobalization, it has rather widened the ruptures caused by various other factors. These impacts, mostly negative in essence, include the spread of fake news reports, and the use of this tool for propaganda against other people. For example,  Facebook has more than two billion users worldwide. Such a huge number of people could be swayed in either direction, using fake news and propaganda. In fact, it has already happened. Cambridge Analytica scandal is the prime example in which Facebook was used to target undecided voters to vote for the Republican Party (Donald Trump) in US Elections of 2016. It shows that fake news reports and misinformation are major inciters of political confusion, accelerating deglobalization. Rise in, and easy access to, fake news has caused a major shift in public thinking, leading them to become less inclusive and more exclusive. In nutshell, negative impacts of social media are bringing deglobalization sooner rather than later.

In this backdrop, recent increase in North-South Divide seems another precursor to deglobalization. Countries, having huge reserves of resources and wealth, are dubbed as the North, while the underdeveloped countries, with shortage of resources and money, are called the South. A simple glance at the history clarifies that this inequality gap – the one that exists between the North and the South – is due to the exploitation the global North has waged against the underdeveloped or developing countries. This divide has caused a serious damage to the chances of development in the developing countries. According to Shashi Tharoor, an Indian Parliamentarian and intellectual, prior to Britain’s entry in India, Indian gross domestic product (GDP) was 23% of the global GDP. However, when Britain left India, it was reduced to less than three percent. Also, the wealth the developed countries have accumulated is not going to be shared with the rest of the world on account of xenophobic mentality. Resultantly, as the world grows poorer in resources, the inequality between the nations increases, leading to open hostilities and skirmishes. In short, this North-South Divide is accelerating the process of deglobalization.

However, to say that this one divide is leading to the death of globalization is too simplistic; in fact, all of the reasons discussed above are causing its death, while the conceptual framework, deglobalization, that is going to replace it, may have serious implications for the world entering the 21^st century. As discussed below, these implications range from death of democratic ideals to increased risks of global conflict, including economic meltdown, rise in terrorism, exacerbation of climate change, increased protectionism, and cause of various socio-economic issues.

Moreover, deglobalization has caused a severe blow, and in some cases even outright death of democratic ideals in some parts of the world. It is because transnational organizations, such as the UN, uphold the pluralistic concepts of democracy. Democratic ideals are their cornerstones. They have been founded on the same principles, and they uphold them. As previous century has witnessed the achievement of these democratic ideals such as democracy, freedom of speech, and reduction in racial discrimination etc. now the rising ultra-nationalism and egregious populism have caused people to look at these ideals skeptically. This is one of the greatest challenges that deglobalization is posing now to human being’s innovations of ideas. It means that democratic ideals are going to witness a steady decline now.

In the meanwhile, diminishing significance of these ideals may lead the world to face the risk of a global conflict. To say that deglobalization is going to intensify this prospect of global conflict or war is not wrong – for Arms Control Association (ACA), a global weapons control body, is of the view that 21^st century has already witnessed both; the development of as well as proliferation of nuclear and even thermo nuclear weapons. Similarly, as deglobalization flourishes, nations turn more hostile toward each other than before. Increasing intolerance may lead the politics to frame national policies, demonstrating exclusivity rather than inclusivity. Old rivalries may turn afresh between nations, leading the world to jump into another global conflict like the previous century. That is why such hostilities have introduced the concepts of brinkmanship and zero sum in diplomacy. The recent Indo-Pak skirmishes along the Line of Control (LOC) in February, 2019, is a perfect example of brinkmanship, having all the likelihoods of starting a global war. To sum it up, the probability of global war will exponentially increase in the 21st century due to deglobalization.

However, another thing that is happening very quickly is that deglobalization is causing meltdown in the global economic system. It is because global economy is the sum of all the trades between nations of the world. Since the establishment of International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOS), the world trade has flourished manifolds. It has provided countries with the means to change the destinies of the people. For instance, the rise of Asian Tigers, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan between 1960-1990, was due to the effective use of the tools provided by the global economy. The life standards of people have bettered across the globe. Sadly, the progress made until now, through this flourishing global trade, is facing a serious threat from factors causing deglobalization such as populism, and nationalism. In other words, it means that deglobalization is going to put a spook in the fast running wheel of the global economy.

Yet another menace like terrorism has already started showing signs of this deglobalization process. Speaking the truth, terrorism has already become a phenomenal problem, and now has transformed into a transnational problem, as terrorists have exploited the fruits of technology to their advantage. Its cure lies in tackling it collectively, which is hard to come by, for deglobalization has already started causing disruptions among the nations. According to a study of Stanford University, more than 24,000 Twitter accounts associated with Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have collectively published 2 million tweets to support ISIS, and its creed. Terrorist organizations, such as ISIS, have now these handy tools to spread their vicious ideology, and unleash a propaganda war through social media, and internet easier than before. As the world becomes increasingly intolerant, the threat of rise in terror incidents looms large in this backdrop. Lack of pluralistic policies to counter this menace will further exacerbate the world’s sufferings. Cutting it short, terrorism may witness another boost through deglobalization.

Furthermore, the world may witness another issue – the climate change, and likely devastation of the planet earth. It seems surprising, yet it is true that deglobalization is going to compound the global issue of climate change in the 21st century. It is because climate change is not a country-specific problem, but a global one. Hence, its prevention lies in a global cure offered through inclusive policy making. On the other hand, deglobalization is intensifying, causing nations to become cynical toward each other, leading to distrust. If this seriously intolerant trend continues, the threat of climate change will continue augmenting, while the public will stand helpless. A case in point is of Donald Trump pulling America out of the landmark, Paris Agreement, on the pretext that climate change is a hoax. According to the National Geographic, the last five years have been the hottest ever recorded in 139-year history of our planet. As climate change showers the world with its wrath of heat, the support for climate change prevention dwindles. Summing it up, it can be stated that deglobalization is making the world see the threat of climate change becoming pervasive.

Simultaneously, deglobalization is causing protectionism, an economic philosophy in which a country shields its domestic industry from foreign competition by taxing imports. This is already happening in a given framework. For instance, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), America has imposed more than $360 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods since 2018. On the same note, it has also barred US technology companies from doing business with Chinese entities. Similarly, the major push towards Brexit, in Britain, came from corners having apprehensions about the slowing economy, and loss of jobs to the foreign nationals. Policies framed with such mental makeup cause disruption in the bonds that bind the world in harmony. In other words, protectionism, the byproduct of deglobalization, is becoming a serious problem for the world.

In this background, however, another serious implication of deglobalization is the sharp increase in socio-economic problems that is stated to be tenfold. As global economy is a major driver of industrial progress of a country today, being a player of the world economy means more finances, jobs, and better human development. Developing nations, by exporting their goods, and capital, become prosperous due to increased revenue inflow. However, deglobalization has shown implication in this arena that now developed nations are increasingly moving toward a closed economy, which is causing havoc in the third-world countries by limiting the scope of their revenue generating capabilities. This has resulted in amplification of socio-economic problems in the social fabric of these countries, leading to poverty, lack of jobs, economic downturn, and inflation. Putting it briefly, deglobalization has serious implications for the world politics, global economy, and local social fabrics of the impacted countries.

To cutting the long argument of deglobalization, factors causing it and implications caused by it short, it is fair to state that after coming up from globalization – a process and conceptual framework and byproduct of the English Industrial Revolution, deglobalization has achieved the status of a theoretical concept. In fact, the fruits, that the whole world was reaping, have come to an end. The dream of the global village achieved during the previous century after centuries of hard work of the nations has fizzled out. People, having become more inclusive due to the emergence of International Organizations (IOs), witnessed those organizations cementing the phenomenon of globalization and ushering in a new era of human connectivity. Sadly, as no good thing lasts for good, globalization is on its death throes. Deglobalization is going to swallow it soon. As it is the phenomenon of decreasing interdependence, and segregation between the nations, and states, it is completely opposite to globalization. As Deglobalization have been caused by the rise of ultra-nationalism, election of populist leaders the world over, overflowing of capital to developing countries,  prevalence of propaganda, and fake news on social media, rise in the North-South Divide, and xenophobia toward foreigners, and refugees. However, its implications are very serious. It is going to cause death of democratic ideals, increasing the risk of global war, and proliferation of terrorism. Similarly, increasing threat of climate change, dwindling progress of the global economy, and policies of protectionism by developed countries are some of its other implications, which are expected to increase socio-economic problems in the third world tenfold. However, it is yet to be seen how theorization of this global cultural term in the global politics and international arena is going to unfold in the world of realpolitik.

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